The pot is laying me exactly 10-to-1 odds (I would be betting $2 for the chance to win $20). If you have a
gutshot, you are about an 11-to-1 underdog to fill it (of the 47 cards I haven't seen, 4 will help me: 43-to-4, or
10.75-to-1), so the pot is not laying me the correct odds. Plus, the five of diamonds could fill my straight but
give someone else a flush--a mini-disaster for me because I'd have to call down the hand (unless another diamond
fell on the river, at which point I would fold).
Player #10 probably has an ace with a marginal kicker (he would have raised preflop with a big kicker). Players #1, #6, and #7 scare me more because it's very likely that one (or
more!) is on the flush draw because they merely called the opening bet. If they make the flush, I'm beaten, and if
they don't, they will fold and not pay me off if I fill my straight.
All signs point to folding, but I decide to make a marginal call for only $2 (note--I'd never make this play in
no-limit hold'em).
Five players, $22 in the pot.
A small miracle for me! I've turned the "wheel." I'm first to act now, so I check, hoping to check-raise.
Player #10, who opened the betting last round, opens again, this time for the big
bet of $4. I was hoping that he would do this. The five of clubs couldn't have helped anybody unless that
person was holding my hand or pocket fives. Player #1 folds, but player #6 raises! Players #7 and #8 fold, and the
action is again on me.
What could player #6 hold? I find it hard to believe that a player would hold onto pocket fives after being bet
into on a flop that has two overcards (plus another player, #1, called the opening flop bet between the opener and
player #6). It's also possible that he was slowplaying a set of tens or threes. (He probably would have raised
preflop with pocket aces--people hate to lose with this hand by being outdrawn by inferior hands allowed to enter
the pot for only one bet.) Maybe he has A-K or A-Q, but he would have raised preflop. I put him on A-5, a set, or a
flush draw.
A-5 is not a great hand to play preflop, but it may be suited, and Player #6 was in late position in the
cutoff. I'm hoping that he does have a set, however, since I will be able to
extract a lot of money from him. The old adage is that if you don't win a lot of money or lose a lot of money
with a set, you're not playing it right. Good players will raise with a flush
draw on the turn. Player #6 is hoping that I'll fold and hoping that Player #10 will fold here or on the river.
A raise like this is a semi-bluff. It could take the pot immediately, but you still have outs if you are called.
It is a strong play and the one I'm worried most about.
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